Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Theories

When it comes to the question, "What happen to Maura Murray," there are endless theories that can be organized into three camps: 1. Suicide. 2. Runaway. 3. Abduction.

I'm the kind of investigator who loves statistics and probability. It's the reason I play Texas Hold Em and not slots or roulette. And two of those explanations are improbable if you consider them logically.

First, suicide. Most suicides occur in the home. Why drive all the way to New Hampshire first? You can commit suicide in a dorm room as easily as you can in the wilderness. Why would she add freezing to death? Women tend toward pills and other forms of painless suicide.

Second, abduction. According to the accepted timeline, Maura was alone on the side of that road for all of about seven minutes. Of all the roads in all the world, a serial killer just happened to be driving by that obscure location in that small window of time? 99.9% impossible.

So, yes, I lean toward runaway...at the moment.

There is, however, another possibility when it comes to the "abduction" scenario. It's less statistically improbable that she was abducted if you consider the possibility that the person who abducted her was someone she knew, someone she was planning to meet up there and came to her aide when the car broke down. Or, that the person who abducted her had the chance to meet her prior to the accident and knew she was alone and followed her to the accident site.

The key to finding Maura lies in her destination. If we learn where she was going, we should come a long way to understanding what happened to her. So far, people have taken for granted the theory that she was still on her way to her destination when she got in the accident. I believe there's clues suggesting she had already made it to where she was going. More on that soon.

What do you think?

24 comments:

  1. I think she was running away also. and yes theres always the chance shes alive. but theres also the chance that she WAS running away and then either she dies because of the elements or she was killed, abducted, etc.

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  2. James,

    Have her cell phone records been made public from the time she broke down and those 15-20 minutes thereafter? I tend to think no one was following her if none of the witnesses saw another car nearby. I don't see how she couldn't have tried to get away and expired somewhere in the cold woods. Seems like the most logical thing.

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  3. I also think the accident was the end of her intended journey. It has long been my theory that someone was meeting her there to help her get away. Away from what, who knows-- my only thought there is that when I was 21, if something upset me, my boyfriend would be the first person I called-- but Maura didn't want to talk to Billy in the days before her disappearance. That suggests she either was upset with him or was hiding the reason for her upset from him.

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  4. Her cell phone records have not been made public. The police and the Rausch's have copies.

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  5. Succumbing to the elements is a theory that James isn't even considering .... Interesting.

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  6. Runaway is the only logical reasoning. Unlike most cases similar to this one, Maura had the means and brains to accomplish a "fresh" start. Too many things point to runaway. Even the way Fred Murray acted in the days after the accident, suggest he too thought it was a runaway. Hopefully Mr. Renner can bring more "clues" to light

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  7. Most people will not consider succumbing to the elements, as it's less ... exotic than the abduction theory. Alcohol is well known to make you more susceptible to hypothermia. My biggest problem with that theory is the 2.5 feet of snow on the ground, if you've ever tried walking in that much snow... it's difficult when sober. If she did succumb to the elements I can't imagine her getting far. To accept that she was abducted then we have to imagine she was either in the wrong place at the wrong time, or some creep was possibly listening to police scanners and happened to pick her up before the cops arrived. I don't buy suicide... how did she kill herself? With what?

    Running away is nonsense too... what is she living on?

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  8. well maybe she saved some money to run away with? and then found a job and gets paid under the table? i dont buy it that the school bus driver had anything to do with it. i think she and someone planned the whole accident thing and ran off together. i read somewhere that a couple days before she disappeared, she had dinner with her dad, her friend and some guy? who was the guy?has he been interviewed?

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  9. 4. Death by misadventure

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  10. Mr Renner,
    May I express the hope that you shall have the opportunity to check out the purported sighting of the Maura Murray look-alike "Raykel" in a Barton,VT, church on Father´s Day 2005.
    From what I understand this possible sighting of MM was rather quickly dismissed by the authorities. The immense symbolism of the Maura look-alike fleeing from the church when the pastor started his Fathers´ Day sermon is something which I find quite compelling.

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  11. If she ran away, why would she bring her textbooks/homework with her and a filled out accident report from a previous accident in her car?

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  12. i think she planned to run away but just for a few days to make up her mind, I think she got scared that she was involved in a second car accident and just wanted to get out of there, especially because her family would be called by the police and since nobody knew she was going out of town she freaked out, so she walked away before the police arrived and she caught a ride, and either that person did something to her or she started a life in a new country, I read somewhere a comment from a Canadian guy who said that he saw Maura and he called her by her name and she smiled, he also said she was with a handsome man, I don't know if that's true I just thought I just mention this.

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  13. Do you know if any of the alcohol found in the car was consumed? I've read on this blog all the bottles were accounted for.. But then what about the coke bottle supposedly containing some alcohol, was it ever tested?

    So far I think it makes sense that she went up there to get away and clear her head, especially if she thought she could be pregnant (which might be why she didn't want to talk to Bill, if he wasn't the father)...

    If she had frozen to death wouldn't her body have been found by now?

    I understand it's hard to believe that someone could be abducted in the span of 10 min but if she started walking away from the scene .. stranger things have happened.

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  14. Of course you can say that she meant to run away and ended up dying due to the elements. But, if that is the case, her body would have been discovered a long time ago. If not the body, at least articles of clothing or personal effects on her body. I think she was hurting emotionally and suffering from depression, anxiety or another mental illness due to her actions before her disappearance. I mean she broke down crying, and got into two accidents before her disappearance. That is not the sign of someone who is emotionally stable and making good decisions. Something was bothering her...BADLY

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  15. I'm leaning towards the theory that she fled the scene of the accident before police arrived because she had been drinking (again- something was wrong obviously), and jumped in the first car that would pick her up. The older couple who lived nearby observed that several cars passed in between the time of the crash and police arriving. This doesn't mean that the car who picked her up happened to be driven by a deranged criminal, but she may have hitched several rides- possibly at one point or another being dropped off at a rest stop, which heightens the statistics of her stumbling into the wrong car, doesn't it?

    Also, I live somewhat near to the area of the accident. My mom (who has been theorizing about this with me for years) pointed out that it's totally bizarre that she would have opted for Rte 112- a desolate back road that would have taken much longer to get to her assumed destination. I remember hearing somewhere that her gas tank was almost full when it was found... maybe someone with bad intentions spotted her alone at a gas station and followed her. Being possibly drunk, freaked, watching someone in the rearview could have caused the crash.

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    1. I doubt that last presumption: if she thought she was being followed, don't you think she would be glad to accept the help of Butch? And if she for whatever reason wouldn't want to accept help from Butch than she would have at least ran over to one of the houses nearby to ask for help against the person that was following her.

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  16. I wonder that she had already arrived at her destination. Argued with someone there and wanted to leave. A rag pipe was stuffed in her tail pipe to keep her from going. Other person chased after her in a red truck....

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  17. I can't help but think she may have been involved in a fatal hit and run with her father's car and panicked. That's when the odd behavior began. Just a thought.

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    1. No it didn't, the "odd behaviour" began at thursday evening when she broke down.

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  18. I'm not sure if this is the right place/topic to mention this but; the crash scene drawing on the police report keeps flashing in my mind since i saw it.
    1- A 120 degrees jump of the rear end of the car/tires is near impossible considering the car crashing into a snow boulder. I have seen couple of snow boulder crashes, snow absorbs the energy of the 30 miles speed easily.
    2- Police should have indicated the skid marks (a 120 degrees arc created by the skid of the read tires) if there were any. There are no skidmarks shown on the report.
    3- Even if the road conditions caused the almost impossible skid after the right side contacted the snow boulder, there should have been damage on the passenger side front corner not the driver side corner.

    So this is either a near impossible crash or MM was not driving eastward as the police reports say.
    And if she was driving westward this adds another mystery to the case, whose car does the eastward tracks belongs to?

    Maybe someone in car safety or crash test industry can help with the crash simulation?

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  19. I say it's a three way tie in terms of probabilities:

    1) She succumbed to the elements after fleeing the accident site. I don't doubt she was drinking and driving at the time of the accident. She has a history of doing this, and the evidence reinforces the notion. Therefore, it's highly likely she fled the scene to hide out until she sobered up. However, if she did freeze to death, she would have removed her clothing towards the end of her journey. That's what people do when they freeze to death. They start to feel overheated. You'd think a hunter or hiker would have found her clothing or body by now, UNLESS she was in an area where hunting is prohibited and/or there are no hiking trails. Also, being a long-distance runner, she could have gotten farther than anyone thought possible. Perhaps the search radius was not wide enough.

    2) She was abducted. I'd like to think the odds of running into a murderer are extremely low when you flee the scene of accident in the middle of New Hampshire. However, the odds increase if the police announced her predicament to the entire county via scanner. Even then, I'd like to think the odds are low. Also, she was very fit and would be quite a challenge if she was chased or captured. However, she was probably a bit drunk, which increases the possibility she got into a the wrong stranger's car. It also makes her less able to fight off an attacker.

    3) She ran away. Frankly, I don't think Maura was savvy enough to pull this off on her own. She used poor judgment when she drank, and she apparently drank a lot. I also don't think she would do that to her father or other family members, UNLESS they themselves were the cause of deeply rooted unhappiness. The evidence indicates that she did not plan to get out of town for good, but only for a few days. The only way this is a feasible scenario is if she had help from a secret lover or a sympathetic family member. The more years that go by, however, the less viable the runaway scenario.

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  20. I wonder if she took 112 because her car didn't run well and she wanted to avoid main roads? Also, is it typical in NH to write up a police report naming a driver, a drunk driver at that, when the supposed driver is not at the scene? In my state, that's illegal. She may well be the suspected driver, but she's not the owner of the car, and there's no actual proof that she was driving, regardless of what the police suspect.

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  21. What's frustrating about this case is that no matter what scenario you want to believe, there are still unanswered questions and things that aren't explained by any theory.

    I think she was taking some time away to think, going on a short few-day trip - it sounds like she had a lot going on in her life - and the plan went awry. It is very ironic that she wanted to disappear for a short amount of time and the plan seemed to worked out TOO well. But I do think that's what happened - she fled the scene and got lost or injured, or she hitched a ride/was abducted by a driver that came along.

    If she wandered off, I can't explain how the dogs lost her scent up the road though. Also the seemingly sketchy car crash that some reports are indicated seemed faked or planned indicate something else was afoot - unless she did that so she could hide for even just a short time.

    I can't help but wonder though if she was being forced to leave - not that she had a gun to her head but that she was under threat by someone to leave, and everything she did was part of that. Which brings up another theory someone I know came up with - the CIA. She was very smart, went to Westpoint...maybe she was told to disappear?

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  22. I don't think she could have been abducted within those few minutes. It's a pretty remote place. I lean towards the runaway scenario. I think she was meeting someone up there and they got her in their car and left to go wherever they were going. Considering her troubles it makes the most sense to me.

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