Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Detailed Weather Reports from day of Maura's crash.




Recently, a meteorologist contacted me with some detailed weather maps and reports that show what it was like outside the day Maura crashed her car, in 2004. And now here they are for your perusal.

Says the weatherman:

It was quite cold on the morning of 9 Feb but it warmed up significantly though the day and a layer of non precipitating clouds combined with warm air moving in from the south kept it from getting super cold that night.

It was an unseasonably warm night.

I think it's just another bit of circumstantial evidence that shows it would have been quite hard to die from exposure to the elements. Especially for someone with military training, like Maura.

24 comments:

  1. Great find, James! I think the majority of us can toss out the option that she died from exposure that night. Kudos to the weatherman for helping you out too.

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    1. To the contrary, I think this info (which I'd heard before) further supports that she died from exposure. Having it "warmer" than usual meant Maura could get farther on foot. But make no mistake, without proper gear and with snow on the ground, she was not going to survive through all the hours of the night (presuming she did run away from the scene). You can succumb to hypothermia in 50 degree temperature. It's all about your body losing heat, which can happen quickly or slowly. So I don't think we should be "tossing out that option" quite yet.

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  2. I never thought Maura ran away from the scene of the accident. There was a lot of people who showed up at the scene of the accident. If we don't know what direction the police, firefighters, and emt were coming from, then how would Maura? In a short amount of time, no one can run miles away on a road, without being seen from someone coming from different directions.
    A good illustration would be to find Maura's BEST track time, then find out on a map where the police station, fire station, etc, are located..and what roads they had to take to meet at the accident scene.
    Also, for the millionth time, there was deep snow in the area and NO footprints were found going OFF the road, INTO the snow. Why do people not understand that? That is a fact. It's ALSO a fact that even in an overheard search done in a helicopter the following day(s) they didn't see ANY footprints to make them think that she wondered off the road at anytime.

    The contractor said he saw a person and *thought* it may have been Maura on his way home from work that night. He also waited for months to come out before saying anything. That sounds suspicious to me. It is also NOT proven, and it isn't a fact that person was Maura. I always thought Maura got picked up.

    Giving the idea that not everyone picks up hitchhikers or strangers (I don't), I think the only two options left are- she either got killed by a bad person who she didn't know, or a friend helped her escape her life and helped her start out new somewhere else.

    I don't think the Maura Murray case is as common or well known as some of you folks may think. I know police officers in both southern Maine, and Northern Massachusetts, and none of them have heard of Maura Murray.

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    1. The area was almost pitch black with no street lights at night. There were a few roads she could have run down in the time she was alone, especially if the weather was mild outside. Runners don't run in the snow, they run on the pavement.

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    2. AnonymousFebruary 6, 2013 at 12:05 PM
      I never thought Maura ran away from the scene of the accident. There was a lot of people who showed up at the scene of the accident. If we don't know what direction the police, firefighters, and emt were coming from, then how would Maura?
      ________________________________________________________
      She had about seven minutes to hide behind a barn or jump into a car or use her high intelligence and West Point training to avoid detection in the initial stages.

      You wrote:
      In a short amount of time, no one can run miles away on a road, without being seen from someone coming from different directions.

      ________________________________________________________

      People have been known to hide to avoid detection. If successful and the coast seems clear, they then try to get away on foot or by hitchhiking or by any means they can.

      You wrote:

      A good illustration would be to find Maura's BEST track time, then find out on a map where the police station, fire station, etc, are located..and what roads they had to take to meet at the accident scene.

      Also, for the millionth time, there was deep snow in the area and NO footprints were found going OFF the road, INTO the snow. Why do people not understand that? That is a fact. It's ALSO a fact that even in an overheard search done in a helicopter the following day(s) they didn't see ANY footprints to make them think that she wondered off the road at anytime.

      _______________________________________________________


      Yeah, flying in a helicopter going God-only-knows-how-fast is the perfect way to see tracks on the ground ... not!!! Moreover, she may have had training at West Point that would have taught her how to hide her tracks.
      Or maybe she was just smart enough to have known how to cover her tracks.

      You wrote:

      The contractor said he saw a person and *thought* it may have been Maura on his way home from work that night. He also waited for months to come out before saying anything. That sounds suspicious to me. It is also NOT proven, and it isn't a fact that person was Maura. I always thought Maura got picked up.

      He explained why he waited so long and rumor has it that on ever so rare occasions the police are sometimes suspicious of reports they get and they interrogate witnesses again and again to try to get them to slip up. Last time I checked Rick F. had not been arrested and charged with a crime. In any case he said he saw a "young person running" and he said that it seemed as though this runner was trying to avoid being seen or words to that effect.

      ________________________________________________________


      You wrote:

      Giving the idea that not everyone picks up hitchhikers or strangers (I don't), I think the only two options left are- she either got killed by a bad person who she didn't know, or a friend helped her escape her life and helped her start out new somewhere else.

      Many people hate to drive alone and hate having no one to talk to. A beautiful young woman would have little trouble getting a ride. Man Mountain Dean might have to wait a tad for a ride.

      You wrote:

      I don't think the Maura Murray case is as common or well known as some of you folks may think. I know police officers in both southern Maine, and Northern Massachusetts, and none of them have heard of Maura Murray.

      Who are the folks who think that Maura's case must be known by every person in northern New England? And, not for anything, but tell the cops of your acquaintance that they SHOULD know about the case in order to be on the look out for anyone matching her description.


      John Avellar



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  3. Is there anywhere she could have slipped and fallen? I do not really know this area of the US.

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    1. There are a lot of trails, beginning about a mile ahead east, as you enter the national forest, where she could have turned off the road. Moreover, she was very familiar with the area and a collegiate distance runner, so it is not unthinkable that she tried to make her way along a snow covered trail, as probably the trail was flattened out and runnable due to snow skiers and snow shoers. If she was close to her destination, it is not at all impossible that she attempted to get there via trail shortcut, for example, by jogging up ahead to - again, for example - the Cobble Hill Trail and following it north. It pretty quickly crosses two dead end roads with residences on them (South Landoff and Brill) then continues north toward other roads with residences that lie off of 10/302. Having done a lot of back woods winter and night hiking, I can tell you that - particularly when snow is involved - it is not hard at all to get off the trail. An experienced hiker could orienteer to navigate such a crisis, and she was certainly experienced, but being sober would help with that a lot. So, lets say she follows a false trail, falls into a stream and breaks her ankle and gradually loses consciousness from exposure (and maybe exhaustion, as it sounds like the poor girl's life was dissolving around her). (Maybe there happens to be a Red Cross cell phone nearby? Just kidding.) Anyway, say a black bear finds her. The thing about black bears is that they don't hibernate, exactly. There is another word for what they do, but I don't recall it. Depending on how the season went, a number of times during the winter, they will get up, leave then den, get some food. So imagine you are the lucky bear who finds a dead human (bears are opportunistic and feed often on carrion). This could explain why no remains were found scattered over a wide ares, as usually happens when animals get ahold of a body; because the bear dragged her body to a den with its cubs, feeding on it for the next few days and weeks then just left it there when spring emerged. Bear dens are typically located in about as remote a place you can imagine, to the point where it is almost impossible to find one even if you are looking for it. I am not an expert, mind you, but on what I do know, I can imagine a death by exposure after a fall without the forest giving up the bones based on this sequence of events. But, then again, I can imagine about 20 other outcomes for Maura too ... and hell if I know which one happened.

      ~ John Green

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    2. Great point about the bears. It is my feeling that Maura was abducted. Probably picked up by a stranger that she thought had good intentions but didn't. She had probably been drinking and also probably hit her head and was panicky, so it isn't hard to believe she could have used bad judgement. My "2nd" theory if you will was that she did succumb to the elements and was dragged away. Maybe not by a bear but by something out in the wild.

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  4. And wasn't the moon brightly shining that night as well? The lady who saw the red truck said that she only went out on relatively warm nights so as not to risk a fall on the ice.


    John Avellar

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    1. Hi John.

      It is always good to read your posts. I have been thinking about that red truck lately. Who was it that saw it? When did the red truck get into the record? Is there a news story or report on something. I am not doubting the premise of your comment, I just don't know and want to learn more about the red truck.

      ~ John Green

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    2. John Green:

      The information about the red truck came from a local who saw it around the Weathered Barn the day of the accident. She didn't recognize the truck and noticed that it seemed to be driving slowly, like it was looking for or at someone and possibly following someone. I seem to recall that the license plate was from Massachusetts, but I could be wrong on that one.

      The reason why I can't be more specific on the information is because the information came from a forum Helena (who now runs the Maura Murray facebook page) ran in the past. The logs of the forum might be somewhere in cyberspace but I am not internet-savvy enough to figure out where to look/what to do, so I can't check this info against the forum. I started following the forum in 2006 so I'm not quite sure when it was founded, and it lasted at least until 2007 or 2008. Helena stopped the forum because she was having a hard time policing it and it was taking up too much of her time to review every post. There was a dedicated group of posters, including some locals. I think another poster took over the forum for awhile and then it just ended. Some of these posters moved to Topix, when it wasn't as crazy as it is now, and I would assume some now follow the facebook page. I've even seen some familiar names post in the comment sections in this blog. I was more of a browser rather than a poster but I did learn a lot about the case from that forum.

      I know that some people have not so favorable feelings about Helena and the facebook page, but when she ran the forum I felt things were cordial for the most part and Helena truly wanted to know what happened to Maura. I have only been to the facebook page a few times and to tell you the truth it gives me a headache with all the constant posting so I really don't care to spend time there, for time and sanity purposes. That said, I really have no opinion on Helena and her current facebook forum.

      The woman who posted about the red truck in Helena's forum was never heard from again, as far as I know. She has not posted in any other forum about the red truck, she just kind of showed up and then disappeared. This piece of information has stuck around since then and nothing has come about since then to disprove this information. All of the posters of the early forum had no reason not to trust the poster and we all felt she was credible.

      From what I recall with that early forum, there definitely were a lot of "What ifs?" going around, trying to think out of the box regarding Maura's fate. The general consensus of posters, however, was that Maura either was abducted and killed or she succumbed to the elements. Some also suggested suicide. No one really knew why she left to go to New Hampshire. I've tried to keep an open mind about what happened but I've always thought one of those first two possibilities above is what happened to Maura. With the information James has posted to this blog, especially information about Maura's life (i.e., the credit card fraud and the track coach boyfriend), I am more confused than ever and have no idea what happened. I hope with all my heart that she is alive and well somewhere.

      If you have any further questions, let me know and I'll see if I can answer them. I'm nowhere near an expert on the case but I have been following it since 2006. Thanks for bearing with me and my long post!

      -Jenny

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    3. Hello John G,
      A lady named Robin O. posted on the old Maura site that she had been walking that night because she was a bit out of shape and dared not risk a fall on the usually awful New Hampshire winter roadways, but that on that night conditions were good. She said that as she was walking to the local store she saw a guy in a red truck pulling out of a driveway and he looked at her. She did not feel that he was creepy in any way. She did not know the man. The red truck may have had Mass license plates but I'm not sure.

      Before Robin posted her account the red truck had been a major source of discussion. I am not sure but some claim the cops have checked it out and know who was driving it and have cleared the person. Others are not so sure.

      Sorry I can not be clearer.

      John Avellar

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  5. http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=68&month=2&year=2004&obj=moon&afl=-11&day=1

    Scroll down and it says that there was 90% illumination on the night Maura disappeared; well at least around Concord.


    John Avellar

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  6. Actually you can die from exposure/hypothermia in 50 degree weather if your body starts losing heat. Lots of other factors play a role as well....alcohol, did she get wet? etc.....

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    1. This is true. Good point. Of course, with each degree of temperature above about 35 degrees, it starts taking exponentially longer to succumb to hypothermia. But if you tried to trail run on the Cobble Hill trail as a short cut to residences that were your destination, lost the trail in the night and in the snow, slipped into a creek and broke your ankle, all while drunk in a very dark national forest and realizing then that you were lost, you'd have ample time for hypothermia to come find you.

      ~ John Green

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    2. Excellent points. It's absurd to imply that hypothermia is only going to happen if the temperature is well below freezing if not below zero. If it's 50 degrees out and one is in any way impaired, wet, if the wind is blowing (even a light breeze), it is entirely possible to become hypothermic. Depending on where you are - in the woods? fallen into an icy river? - it is not at all unlikely that one could die. If the presumption is that someone intended to run away and succeeded, that possibility would potentially ruin one's "hypothesis."

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  7. I was there the weekend immediately before she disappeared---there was not deep snow...there was some snow but not deep by any means.

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  8. Thanks so much to the person who provided so much weather information and to you Mr Renner for posting it.

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  9. like you sayed by ur self here, Maura Had military training wich means she wont surrender that easy why no body did serch for any fights or injury happens in 2004 same month as maura has gone ? am totely sure if some one took her or done what ever to her she would fight back and do w/e to get her self safe

    please do some serchs around her towns and hospital and see if thers any wired injury happens or w/e its called

    sorry for my bad english and hope maura is good and well

    Peace from Bahrain

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  10. There is no way that Maura succumbed to the elements anywhere near the crash site. The area was searched extensively by every means possible, and a body undoubtedly would've turned up over the past nine years.

    Some people believe that Maura intended to commit suicide, perhaps at some special location (e.g., the White Mountains). It's possible that she hitchhiked to her intended location, somewhere very remote, where she either committed suicide or succumbed to the elements. (I'm not suggesting that that's what happened; it's just a possibility.)

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    1. Being a pretty experienced hiker who has taken on some challengingly remote places and a few times nearly lost my life, I can tell you that I can imagine a number of scenarios under which Maura succumbed to the elements. I related one above, under a reply to a another comment, for example.

      ~ John Green

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  11. I am the same height and weight as Maura and I can easily walk on snow that has been frozen over a few times without leaving a trace of footprints. I'm not heavy enough to break through the snow and leave any tracks.
    This could be why no footprints were found.

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  12. I'm almost positive that she took off from the scene, and this weather report strengthens that hunch. Does anyone know how far she would've had to run to get cell reception? I looked at the current Sprint map, and if this happened today, she wouldn't have had to go too far down 112 before she got coverage again. Does anyone have a cell reception map from 2004?

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  13. You know...I don't think it's ever occurred to anyone that she might have simply left the crash to get a cell signal.

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