Monday, November 16, 2015

Maura Was Not A Sociopath, She Was a Survivor

A few months ago, on Lance and Tim's podcast, I said that I thought Maura Murray was a sociopath. I based this opinion on the few insights we have into her personality - the secret affair with Hossein, stealing other people's credit cards and identities, stealing from Fort Knox, running away from friends and family, etc. It was one interpretation of the circumstantial evidence in this case.

I was wrong.

I was lacking a very important piece of information - the nature of her relationship with Bill Rausch. And I was forgetting her rough upbringing in Hanson - where she was the one in charge of buying groceries for herself and her little brother, where she had to sell Cutco knives to make ends meet.

Maura Murray is not a sociopath. She is a survivor. She always was.

I now believe she ran away to survive. To protect herself - and, if the police are correct - her baby. And talk about a motive to remain quiet for 11 years - can you get anything better than protecting a kid? What wouldn't you do? That's certainly one way to avoid any custody troubles.

To me, this is now the most likely scenario. And certainly the one I wish is true.

If it is, the very last thing I want to do is to expose someone who is in hiding for these reasons.

So, Maura, if you're out there, just tell the police, tell someone you're okay. You're an adult, and it's not illegal to start over somewhere. You don't have to tell them where you are, just that you're alive and well.

Or have a friend do it.

Until then, it's hard not to look at this case as a possible homicide.


98 comments:

  1. So the police believe she was pregnant? Did I miss a previous mention of this, or is this part of the new info you said you had but decided not to share? I know about the online searches for alcohol/pregnancy--but I don't recall you ever saying the police actually thought she was pregnant.

    Thanks!

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    1. The lead detective from the beginning of the case has said he believes she was pregnant (or thought she could be) based on forensics of her computer.

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    2. If she was pregnant and protecting her baby, why drink?

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  2. If I were her I would contact an attorney who can talk to police on my behalf. I wouldn't trust police to protect me.

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  3. If she is protecting her baby then what's with all the booze?

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  4. Could Maura of been looking pregnant in the video and that's why they won't release it?
    If Maura was pregnant and thought her child would be in danger, I could see her running away and staying quiet.
    It would explain why Sara and Kate won't speak about what they know. There protecting Maura.
    IMO if Maura is alive, for her to come out and say this, shell need to be guaranteed a 100% her location won't be revealed.
    It makes a lot of sense if Maura was pregnant to stay hidden. If its found out where she is and she has a child it could uproot her life and bring the person/ people she was running from back into her life. The people she desperately wanted to get away from.
    I think it would have to be guaranteed if she did have a child, that it wont be revealed. Heck she doesn't even have to say she had a child, just that she's Alive.

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    1. Wait. I'm confused. If Maura was pregnant, why would her child be in danger? To our knowledge, she had no enemies. And unless she was secretly dating a criminal or a political figure (both scenarios are far fetched) what possible danger would her or her unborn child be in?

      What am I missing here? Maura was a college student who had some hardships and some extremely minor scrapes with the law. She wasn't the next coming of Osama Bin Ladin. Who could possibly cause her to fear for life?

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    2. IMO, it wouldn't be so much fear for her life but fear of a child growing up in a volatile relationship.
      Billy and Maura's relationship was in shambles. According to Hossein( the track coach Maura had been seeing about 5 months prior to her disappearance) Billy was controlling. I believe Hossein said in his interview with James, that he wanted/ was trying to help her get away from Billy.
      Apparently Renner has gotten some new info, that calls Billy's character in question.
      I believe someone related to Maura on her moms side, said Fred could be pushy, etc...
      IMO, if Maura was pregnant it would be to protect the child from some volatile relationships and perhaps herself.


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    3. There were rumors that she was having affairs...so maybe it was the wife/gf of the father of the child, or the father of the child?

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    4. She might have bought booze to cause her to "lose" it, or thought she might from drinking. Though I doubt that.

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  5. From the very start of this case, I have always believed she was pregnant. With myself being pregnant with an unfaithful baby daddy who makes life harder for me than it has to be and pushed me to almost have an abortion, it sometimes makes me want to run away. And with all of the troubles she was having, could have given her more motive.. Here are my two theories:

    1) She left on her own free will. I think she wanted a new life with her child that didn't involve the demons that she was currently facing. When I found out I was pregnant, I was at work, i took a test and when it came back positive I was in a DAZE. I never noticed customers walking through the door. This could explain her breakdown at work that night. But, doesn't explain the alcohol.

    2) She planned on having an abortion. Only reason I say this, is because when I did find out i was pregnant and considered the option.. I found a hotel i would take the abortion pill at. I wanted to be away from everyone and didn't want anyone knowing. I wanted to be able to be in pain alone and go through the process without being ashamed of someone knowing. When I made these arrangements, the one thing i wanted to bring to ease the pain was ALCOHOL. Although, i choose not to go this route. Maybe she did too and took off.. or maybe she was in the process of reaching her destination, but unfortunetly didn't and met with trouble.

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    1. That's a very intriguing scenario, jess.

      Hey, sounds like you've got a lot on your plate. Wishing you and your baby the best with everything! Hang in there - you sound like you are gonna be a cool mom!

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    2. Jess, best wishes to you and your baby. I hope things take a turn for the better for you. You seem like an awesome lady.

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  6. Wonder if the police felt the stains in Maura's car to see if they were damp or dry? If the stains happened the night of Maura's crash then they should of had a dampness to them
    If they happened prior to the crash, then the stains would of been dry.
    If Maura was pregnant, why would she of bought all that alcohol? She bought alcohol on Sat and Monday.
    Was all the alcohol to throw the investigation off ( A Red Herring) or was Maura an alcoholic and couldn't stop drinking. Even if she was pregnant?
    I could also see if Maura was pregnant, realizing she couldn't stop drinking if she was around the people who was currently in her life. Supposedly Fred drank quite a bit and UMASS was a party school.
    Perhaps if she was pregnant it gave her the strength and courage to run away and start over , so she could protect a child and herself.

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    1. I believe the alcohol was a red herring myself. The case is full of them because FM and MM tried to cover their tracks imo.

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    2. I believe the alcohol was a red herring, as was the rag in the tailpipe. Pregnant or not, Maura wasnt running from custody battles imo. JR needs to look harder at the petrit vasi connection that he dismissed way too quickly. I doubt anything will turn up, but I think he needs to evaluate if it was possible, not likely. She was willing to take risks stealing credit cards, why wouldn't she risk leaving a job with little to no oversight for a half an hour.

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    3. IMO, the Petrit Vasi angle was dismissed to quickly too.
      Maura's phone call to Billy 12:07-12:14 in earlier days/ years never spoke of
      Family saying couldn't be possible, she was at work and too far away, reality it was very close to where she was
      Catatonic state..Thursday around 1 am
      Fred swooping into town with 4,000 for a new car..no new car, Maura's friends say she didn't mention getting a new car
      The story ran in the UMASS paper on Monday, the day Maura disappeared
      Not sure if true but supposedly the owner of Reliance Auto (place Maura called on Sat), owned the apartment Vasi lived in
      IMO, alot of quincendances to not look at this angle

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    4. She WAS with Fred previously. Maybe he helped her escape and just doesn't know where she went?

      He MAY have told her to buy booze so people would suspect pregnancy. He WAS the one who mentioned the weird rag in tailpipe thing, assuming it was her who did it.

      Though that doesn't explain how it's been said Sara told him the full truth.

      My brain hurts.

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    5. IMO- the rag was a way to communicate without directly communicating.. It was to let her family/ friends she made her connection
      The rag was suppose to be kept quite but instead it was put out there. Only the police and Maura's family/friends who were briefed shortly after Maura disappeared knew about the rag in tailpipe. . Ironically, this info got leaked to the public. Fred came up with a reason why it was there.
      IMO, they had to release the info so maura would know they found it/ know about it.
      If the rag meant nothing, then I believe it was a red herring to throw the investigation off .

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  7. If she was pregnant and wanted to protect her baby, as you say, she wouldn't have been drinking like a fish. That family was so dysfunctional no wonder she was too. It's sad.

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    1. I think the search of her computer revealed that she didn't know she was pregnant and wanted to find the affects of drinking while unknowingly pregnant.

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  8. I think she was in an irrational, impulsive self-destructive state. She was a kid dealing with some hard things and sowing wild oats. I think she was just running period, to get away from her f'ups....not to protect a kid. Everyone knows drinking is very dangerous when pregnant...and if she searched online about it she certainly would have seen that....yet she continues to drink heavily? Nah, she wasn't protecting a baby...if anything in her state she probably wanted to get rid of it. This can't be looked at through eyes of a rational adult. Maybe she was running to get away from problems that included Billy but I don't buy the whole survivor protecting baby angle.

    I hope she did run and make it to a new life. But I think it is more likely she is gone and the answer of how won't turn out to be that complex.

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    1. I could not agree more with all your statements. She very well could have been pregnant or afraid she was and that would add to her stressed-out irrational actions (which I think lead to her untimely demise) but I don't think would have facilitated such a well-executed complete change of identity/11 yr life on the lamb, with baby. No, Maura wasn't in the witness protection program and Billy and Dad aren't mobsters. She wasn't going to be wearing a scarlet letter or burned at the stake. She was an adult. If she wanted to leave school and Billy and get a job at a gym or Starbucks far from family, she can and she doesn't have to go to extreme measures to do it. Adults do it all the time.

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    2. It's not about extreme measures. Adults also voluntarily disappear all the time, and do not get in contact with friends and family. It's not always about whether or not you CAN do whatever you want, like dropping out of school, but rather having to deal with the fall-out from it, and other people's criticism of your choices. For some adults it's just easier to leave instead and do it on your own, even if you wouldn't actually be prevented from making your own choices if you stayed.

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    3. Hi, Anonymous November 18, 2015 at 6:57 AM, I think you misunderstood what I meant about "extreme measures." We're on the same page that adults choose to pick up and leave all the time. Maybe they also don't contact friends or family and make a fresh start. We agree. That's what makes this 11 yr disappearance despite National TV coverage and police and Private Investigator's searching on any use of her SS # and not a peep or a trace so unnecessary and unrealistic as a scenario. This IS extreme and super RARE. Unless you were on the run from a blood-thirsty posse there is no reason for an adult to do this. Its very unlikely she is alive with an 11 yr old.

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  9. Have you long known of the police theory that Maura was pregnant or is this new information they've made you aware of?

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    1. She did write to teachers "family emergency"

      Hmm

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  10. So you no longer believe she was murdered? She knew she was pregnant and loaded her car with alcohol and took her birth control with her? Do you think it is Billy's baby? What about the mystery surrounding the party with Sarah and Kate? Maura running away to protect her baby gives me even more questions.

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    1. Birth control was the first thing I thought of too. Don't think they'd have been with her if she was pregnant. Sure they could have been in the car from before she found out but the list of items sounds more like she "packed" these items (as opposed to them randomly cluttering up her car).

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    2. There was only 4 pills gone, so either she had just got a new months worth or they were old. If she did just dump stuff in a bag from her bathroom then they could of just been one of the things in there. Or they could of been in her car for a while.
      The police could of found out 11.5 years ago if she just filled them or if they were old because she would of needed to go to a health clinic or a doctor to get them.
      4 pills gone- go 4 days back, it would of been Thursday ( the day of the breakdown) perhaps Maura had went to get a refill and found out she was pregnant.. Could this be why the UMASS health questionnaire was in her car? .

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    3. I personally believe there was no party. If that is the case, what does that tell us about kate?

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    4. Birth control pills have a sticker on the package/bottle that are the day they were filled. Whe not conclusive, on the reasonable assumption that they were filled every 30 days (when insurance would cover them) then the police should be able to figure out if she was taking them daily.

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    5. If you take 4 BC pills together at once, isn't it basically the morning after pill? Did she pound 4 pills, wash them down with some wine and get away for a few days so people in her dorm wouldn't notice her being sick?

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    6. And come to think of it, she went missing on a Monday. You start birth control pills on a Sunday. There should have been one or two pills missing if she started them the day before

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    7. You can start a new pack of birth control pills any day you want. You can also get more than one pack at a time (mail order companies usually send 3 months at once; when I was in college, they gave you then entire years' worth at once); typically you just go to your OB/GYN once a year for an exam and they will prescribe you an entire year's worth. So unless the pack has a dispensed date on it (and that's often on the outside wrapper which is discarded) and there's evidence she didn't get more than one pack at a time, I don't think you can really come to any conclusions based on the number of pills missing.

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    8. If MM was pregnant, would it be possible she took her birth control pills with her to take? With the pills and all the alcohol, wouldn't that be a sure fire cocktail to lose a baby?

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  11. Great words sir .. In with you on that.

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  12. Ok... so originally you started off thinking she ran off to start a new life. And then you got some info that was apparently so earth-shattering that you believed that she was actually the victim of foul play and is deceased. And now for some unknown reason, you're back to thinking she started a new life.

    So it appears that the info you had that led you to believe she was deceased is not all that persuasive after all. You also stated that you were the one who had to decide when or if you would disclose this info. Well, now seems like a good time considering that the info is no longer relevant enough to make you think she's deceased.

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    1. It seems to be something about Billy painting him in a negative light. If you read between the lines, Renner basically said as much in an earlier post (or was it is Reddit IAMA?).

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    2. Agreed. I think it had to do with billy possibly being involved until renner looked at phone records and found out he wasn't near NH.

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  13. This post is the loudest mic drop yet. Sounds like there's lots of new info. Looking forward to see what we learn in the next podcast to combine with this. Also dying to know more about what you've uncovered about the relationship between Maura and Billy.

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    1. Loudest mic drop in that this guy is still at square one 3 years later?

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    2. >"Loudest mic drop in that this guy is still at square one 3 years later?"

      Knock it off with the trolling. If he is missing something, then just state plainly what you think happened to Maura or what Renner is missing. We all love theories here, so let's hear it. Otherwise, you just seem like someone trying to seek attention and act like you have some great insight.

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    3. Note that when LOBO was politely asked about his latheringly implied knowledge of the case (see his "red herring" red herring post and the comments following), LOBO backpedalled rapidly, clarifying that he has none. So, perhaps, it is even more surprising that LOBO remains at square 0, after so much implying of oracle-like, only-cryptically-expressed knowledge? Give him another shake and he'll say, "answer unclear ask later."

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    4. isn't Lobo the latin word for Wolf?

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  14. Maybe Maura confronted the baby daddy about her pregnancyat the party.Maybe his response wasnt as hoped.Maybe she was devastated&knew she had to tell FM,even if it was in the middle of the night.Maybe she was ashamed she had ruined everything.Did she think drinking too much might abort the baby?As a possible catholic the normal way to end a pregnancy would be out of the question.Maybe she did have a black eye on the ATM.From FM or the baby daddy.So she ran.....

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  15. Maura was also a nursing student. What happened to the theory that she was researching information for her Obstetrics clinical rotation? I'm a nursing student. I'm looking stuff up all the time on my computer. It would make a difference if the police knew the time frame between when she looked up this info about the effects of alcohol on a fetus, vs when she looked for places to stay in VT and/or NH. Did she do a google search on these places right *after* she googled the effects of alcohol, etc? And, if her searches included things like peer-reviewed, evidence-based "teratogenic effects on a fetus" or if it was more like "how will can drinking affect my baby if I'm pregnant?". There's a significant difference.

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    1. I completely agree. I'm a 21 year old nursing student and I'm googling tons of weird stuff every day from alcoholic liver cirrhosis to lactating hormone... just depends on what the lecture was on that day. They should release her class schedule, if she was taking adult nursing, pediatics or OB that's a total giveaway. Also, nobody is really taking into account how upset she must have been being in trouble with the police from stealing or whatever. One little misdemeanor will get you kicked out of the nursing program where I'm from.

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  16. Of course, it could be argued that she may have been using her research for nursing school FOR her own issues, but it's doubtful that if she were using a database like CINAHL or EBSCOHost that she was using this search to find information pertaining to herself rather than to her coursework. If this information was known by the detectives, it could easily lend more credence to one option over the other.

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  17. Its implied the child would most likely be Billy Raushs kid concieved over christmas break. If Maura wanted nothing to do with Billy anymore having his baby would put the child not in danger but in possible a dual custody scenario. I dont know man it seems like a pretty huge ruse just to keep the father of a baby away. But if its true , that means there is a 12 year old boy or girl probably canadian that looks like Billy Raush who is starting to use Social Media who has a Mom with a Boston Accent and questions about his dad. Would make it easier to find her. Its long been rumored she was pregnant. I also think in 2004 Plan B was sold in Canada over the counter in clandestine pharmacies ( Not Wallgreens or CVS). Canada still has a lot of neighborhood drug stores. This is really not new information.

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    1. Don't think she'd be using plan B (which is the same think as birth control pills but in higher dosage) if she was already several weeks to a month along. It's meant to prevent implantation which would have occurred already.

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  18. Could she have been a victim of domestic abuse or simply fled to an assistance shelter due to the pregnancy?

    Check these out: http://www.legalhandle.com/New-Hampshire-domestic-violence.html

    New Beginnings A Women's Crisis Center, P.O. Box 622 Laconia, NH 03247 Hotline: 1-800-277-5570 Phone: Office: (603) 528-6511 Phone: DV Crisis Line: 1-866-644-3574


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    1. That is a reallly interesting point. it is in the area. they basically take you in and hide you... but the thing is wouldn't they realize the police were searching and let them know everything was ok and we had her if she was in a shelter? but then again maybe that is why the police are dragging thier feet with this. maybe she was the victim of abuse and this whole things was set up by the shelter. that could have been the tandem driver..someone from the shelter to make it seem like something happened and she just wandered away but really went to the shelter to start a new life with her child? i dont know how these places work so its just a rambling right now in my head.. seems far fetched but you never know. maybe that is what her friends know and they are not saying anything.

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  19. So.... All the people who called me out when I said sociopath was a bit harsh....

    I hate to say it, but I'm leaning murder. Hope I'm wrong.

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  20. I was wondering if she stopped along her way, stuffed the rag into her tail pipe, tried to hit the tree like that man who saw it said and was hoping she would be knocked out and breath in the carbon. And was a bit drunk to make the process easier?

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    1. Well thank God for the crucial, mind-splitting insight of Kristine Lynn.

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    2. But why? Why create such a ridiculously elaborate and easy-to-botch suicide plan?

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  21. I don't doubt there was a chance of pregnancy here - but to flee an accident, run away with a little money and then go on to conceive and support a baby off the radar is not a simple feat.

    Duping a hospital is one thing but the financial aspect is overwhelming.

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  22. This angers me that you can think she is alive,,,,seriously WTF??? This poor girl is not living a new life......NO WAY! She was too family oriented to do this...... her family loved her! I don't care what you say there is absolutely NO WAY Maura is out there living the dream.......she is dead and WE as a community NEED to find her!

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  23. I've stayed mostly silent on this blog, though I have followed it closely as someone who remembers the concern in the region when Maura went missing and have both felt badly for and admired members of her family over the years. I spend a fair amount of time in the White Mountains myself and think of Maura and her family often.

    I feel compelled to say this now. You spent month and years making inferences about her father's behavior in the wake of her going missing and also about his relationship with her and then wondered aloud why he wouldn't speak with you or associate himself with your book. You called her a sociopath and wondered why her friends wouldn't tell you everything they know about her. I realize you are recanting the sociopath moniker now, but you are edging around completely maligning Bill Rausch in the process. Why should anyone trust or believe the things you are saying (well, inferring) at this point?

    It may not be the intent or the case here, but it seems heartless to come into a community and a family and throw these "theories" around... in the name of what??? I know you are from the midwest, so I wonder if you have begun to understand the culture of the family and people you were "investigating" - New Englanders (hint: we're pretty private people) and for that matter, West Point, have unique cultures that shape those who spend time there, as do most places. Further, these are individuals and real people you are putting out there. Not everyone will react to a tragedy in the same way. It doesn't make them complicit.

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    1. Respectfully, I would like to point out that the nature of the interactions between James and the family came prior to his online public musings. I certainly infer that he seems to be implying BR as being at the very least a catalyst to the events causing Mauras disappearance.

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    2. Understood. This is in part based on a gut feeling that I have. I don't know the Murray family, but I know a lot of people from similar places and backgrounds (I actually come from a similar background and this very region) and I know they would bristle at reporters showing up some years after such an event and digging around. My gut tells me that THEIR gut told them to not trust Renner - and based on the online musings that followed, I am sure they feel now that they were right to distrust.

      The new BR inferences, I don't know what to make of them. I feel badly for anyone to be put through such public speculation of the choices and decisions they made in their twenties. These aren't celebrities or reality stars. They are just trying to live their lives.

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    3. I agree with this to be honest.

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    4. You have to dig around to find the truth.
      They portrayed Maura as this All American Girl with her life being perfect. Didn't know why she would leave and go to New Hampshire. She was engaged to be engaged, although Maura's and Billy's relationship was in shambles, she hadn't drove her car in two weeks , although it passed inspection 3 months prior and the car made it to Haverhill, NH, Maura driving to Fred's hotel at 3 am, crashing Freds car, 4,000 Fred came to town with on the Sat prior to Maura disappearring for a new car but no new car, friends can't remember anything, Thursday breakdown at work, with all this you have/ need to look into what was going in Maura's life prior to try and find the answer of what happened to her..why was she in New Hampshire in the first place.
      There Wouldn't of needed to be digging around years later, if they would of been honest from the get go.
      To me that makes me wonder, why weren't they? If they truly didn't know what happened, then why wouldn't they give any info whether good/ bad that possibly could help.
      Not only did they not talk with Renner but they wouldn't speak with Clint either.
      Ironic Fred wanted to know the info the police had but didn't want to give any info that would help. Who waits two years to do a formal statement when there child is missing?
      IMO, Fred didn't want a Book written , not because it was Renner( he didn't know him at all,there was no blog yet), but because he didn't want certain aspects of Maura life uncovered because it possibly could lead to what happened to her and why she was in New Hampshire.
      A lot of families with missing loved ones would love to have a book written, a team of investigators that was trying to help, and the publicity Maura's case has gotten.
      IMO, more people would of understood Maura's troubles and not of judged her for several mistakes she made at 21. By not being truthful, caused more public speculation then if Maura's family/ friends would of been honest. When your untruthful it makes people wonder why and what are they hiding? Especially when the days prior to Maura's disappearance, were bizarre.

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    5. I disagree completely. This is a cold case. Very cold.

      Think about how detectives and police investigating a possible murder operate. Is it their job to keep everyone happy? No, their job is to ask tough questions, to dig around, to uncover things that others would rather hide. They might play good cop/bad cop. They might make accusations or say "mean" things. What exactly do her family/friends have to hide?

      I'm sensitive to their feelings, but it's also been TWELVE YEARS! Don’t her family and friends want the case solved? If Maura was murdered, she deserves justice. The community is also at risk.

      ANYTHING leading up to Maura's trip is fair game since it not clear which evidence will crack the case. So are her relationships. Remember, most people are murdered by people they know. If Maura’s friends/family want the case to be solved they should be willing to talk--especially if they aren’t covering up for a crime.

      I am SO sorry for any difficulty Maura's family has been through. I would never wish that on ANYONE. But I think it's naive to think one can solve a cold case by tiptoeing around and asking the easy questions.

      Essentially, the job of someone working a cold case is to stir up all of the dust that has settled. Maybe some would rather let sleeping dogs lie, but I, for one, am so grateful that Renner has taken on this case. It's a rather thankless task, and it's easy to criticize.

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  24. well, statistically speaking, most likely the boyfriend did it. Which boyfriend, maybe that part is up for debate but if she ran, and went to canada that's the zebra. The horse says she was killed by a male family member or intimate partner. At least she was near canada.

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    1. why does it have to be male?

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  25. ~ this was 2004. After the 2001 tragedy, it was even more difficult to change your identity ( falsify a social sec #, obtain a drivers lic, apply for credit, etc) If Maura planned her disappearance, she would have had some serious help from someone to establish a new identity, place to live, income, clothing, transportation, etc. I still think it was very well orchestrated.... So the bottom line is: if she chooses to remain off the grid after 11+yrs she is still afraid of something or someone.

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    1. And why is everyone acting like having a baby with no money and no support system is no big deal?

      Yeah, she fled to have her baby....with no money. And no car. And no HEALTH INSURANCE.

      Yeah, that seems legit.

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    2. thats my point - she had help. well planned, help.

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    3. She could get government assistance when moving to a new state. If I remember correctly, I read somewhere the police aren't able to get information frim social security administration that easily. It takes many warrants and hoops to jump through to find out if someone is using that number. Maybe she's using her same SSN and the police just can't get that information.

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    4. There is a popular theory that she escaped to Canada. If she did and had the proper documentation (which appears to just be a birth certificate/passport and confirmation of permanent residence), she could qualify for their free healthcare system after a waiting period (which appears to be 3 months).

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  26. Even if Maura was pregnant, that doesn't mean she was planning to have a baby. I make no assumptions here; just stating that it is possible for a woman to know she is pregnant and also know that she is going to terminate the pregnancy. I am skeptical of her running away to protect her unborn baby while allegedly drinking and driving and purchasing alcohol in quantity. I do not think this is a viable scenario. I do think that if she was pregnant, this would be another additional stressor in an already troubled life.

    James - glad to see your compassion in this most recent post. Thanks for your ongoing work.

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  27. Flip-Flop, Runaway or Homicide you decide

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  28. I keep going back to the fact that Dad knows more than he's letting on. I don't think he has anything to do with it, but I keep wondering if he knew of what her intentions were with this trip (or what she let him believe). I wonder if the plan went wrong (or she had a totally different plan) and he is as confused as the rest of us as to what happened to her. Maybe she was pregnant, maybe not...I think Fred's belief of what was supposed to happen did not happen and he refuses to let people in on what he does know. If this is true, it doesn't really help in figuring out if she ran away and started a new life or if she was met with foul play.
    I also believe that at this point she wouldn't come forward with all of our judgements about her....would you?

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  29. Recently it seems like a new theory every week & no closer to the truth unless you have a lot of information that you're keeping back for whatever reason. I no longer believe she is alive. If by chance she was alive & contacted you what would happen with your book release?

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  30. I agree with this, at least the running away part (I don't have enough info on any potential pregnancy). There are plenty of reasons for her to want to run away, and use alcohol to excess, and so on and so forth. However, I'm not sure how successful she ended up being or if something happened to her along the way.

    I always thought the reason her father came to visit that weekend was to help her escape by giving her money and to visit one last time (I honestly believe that he loved her very much and didn't want to hurt her in any way). I think the story about buying a car was a ruse he made up later on when asked why he was there, especially with that much money. I think the rag in the tailpipe was supposed to be a secret signal between the two of them (whether it meant she got away and was ok or something else, I don't know), which is why he made up the lame excuse that he told her to do that when her car wasn't running properly. This is why at first he said he thought she went into the woods to commit suicide; so no one would look for her and that would give her time to get away. Then maybe he realized something went wrong (possibly he didn't get the next secret signal?) and changed his tune to accuse a local dirtbag abducting her.

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    1. I am really diggin' this theory. Sounds pretty legit.

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    2. I agree with this so much...I don't think there was a pregnancy. Maybe she thought she was pregnant because she missed a few cycles or something? She was 5'7" 120lbs at the time if I recall. That's not exactly under weight, but it's pretty small. Also, she was a runner and was under a lot of stress...Speaking from experience here: I wouldn't be surprised if she mistook the effects of stress (I'm talking hardcore emotional stress, adrenal fatigue, the works) for pregnancy.

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    3. Buliemics often stop menstruating

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  31. Why the fuck would anyone call a STRANGER anything?

    Don't be so judgmental you bastards.

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    Replies
    1. yeah, seriously, why would someone call a stranger a bastard?

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  32. How would the police know anything about her state of being? Did they find DNA that shows something?

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  33. I have long felt like the fact that her friend couldn't remember much about the party in the days prior to her disappearance or who was at it was fairly significant.

    My opinion, which would match up with this scenario (as well as others), is that there never was a party. I don't think that something odd happened at the party, or that the reason they are tight-lipped has to do with who was there. I don't think the party happened at all. I think that was a cover story to account for a large chunk of time that night, where Maura and her friends were doing *something* that relates to why/how she disappeared. I think they came up with the story of the party as a quick, believable cover, without really thinking through the fact that they would have to account for who was there and other details if they were questioned.

    I lean heavily towards Maura disappearing voluntarily, and that is one of the major reasons I believe it is more likely than murder, suicide, or death by misadventure. There was clearly more going on prior to her disappearance than we know, and her friends certainly know something. Perhaps not all of it, or what actually happened to her, but they know things they are not divulging. I used to think it was very likely that Fred knew, but now I'm really not so sure of that.

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    1. I too have always felt there was no party. This case got a large amount of publicity from day one. The fact that not a single person from this alleged party has ever come forward in the last 12 years to say, "Hey! I was there!" Speaks volumes. Somebody would have said something. If a student from your college goes missing, you're going to remember that. And if you were at a party with this student a couple days before they went missing, you would NEVER forget that.

      Kate and Sarah have lied since day one and they continue to cover this up.

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  34. This post literally gave me the chills. I hope to God you find out she is alive and safe.

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  35. I seem to recall seeing something on the blog about Maura not driving her car much.

    If that's true, & if she took her birth control pills even remotely regularly, it seems more likely that she packed them for her trip rather than her car being the place she kept them. Assuming that's true, why pack them if she was pregnant? I think it may be possible to induce a miscarriage by taking a lot of pills at once, but I don't know if the 4 missing would have been enough to do it.

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    1. Fred/family/ friends said Maura hadn't drove her car in two weeks. But before that she was driving her car. They had just got back from Christmas break. I believe they had only been back at school for about 9 to 10 days.
      Which is almost 2 weeks..
      Seems Maura was driving her car during the break. What happened to Maura's car, where she couldn't drive it, not even to clinicals but the car made a trip to Haverhill, NH.
      Since they hadn't been back at school that long, How many clinicals would Maura of gone to?
      Seems as soon as Maura returned to school, her car was undrivable.
      Perhaps the car wasn't undrivable but Maura didn't want/ need to be seen driving the car.
      IMO, either something happened to Maura's car shortly after she had returned to school or right before she returned.

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    2. I once called a pharmacy for plan b, the Morning after pill... They were out of them so they prescribed me... You guessed it...birth control pills... I forget but it was either take 2 pills in the morning and 2 pills at night... Or 4 pills in the morning, 4 at night for comparable results.

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  36. It honestly depends on the pill...whether it is monophasic or triphasic, whether it is estrogen or progesterone based... also depends on the stage of pregnancy. Some pills are honestly more likely to cause birth defects than a miscarriage. Also to amend my earlier statement on figuring out where she was at in her pill taking schedule, we would have to establish whether or not she took the placebo pills or skipped them to avoid having a period. Some doctors would write prescriptions so that the insurance would cover them more frequently if this is how a patient chose to take them. But in the end...I really don't think the BC pills are that significant to be honest with you. Just like what was left in the car really only tells us what was UNIMPORTANT to her at the time of her leaving her vehicle. Not what was important. Further, Butch Atwood did not arrive at the same moment she crashed. So she had time to gather up what she wanted to take with her even if she wasn't physically holding it while speaking to BA.

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  37. Hold on people. Now James is telling us:
    -that Maura was pregnant;
    -that she was NOT a sociopath ( error in diagnosis);
    - that she may well be ALIVE;
    My head is spinning...
    Not so long ago on this very same blog, MM was DEAD, a pyschopath and taking contraception. Well, well, what's next ?
    Sorry to be cynical and sarcastic but the next update will tell us SHE is now a HE and Fred was her mom. PLEASE.

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    1. Stop it. None (?) of us know wtf was up with Maura, that's why she's so captivating. The purpose of this blog is to try to unravel all possible theories. Don't be a hater.

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    2. The person has a point though. It feels like the author of the blog is just throwing s$%* at the wall to see what sticks. In the process, he is making some terrible inferences about people (BR, FM).

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    3. Ok, sorry, I was a bit harsh. I agree with you somewhat BUT... You're still reading the blog, so he's doing something right...
      The inferences about Fred and Billy are a result of the "conspiracy of silence" which they helped to perpetuate. If these people are not telling the whole truth then why would we NOT assume there was something suspicious involving certain people in her life that may have led to her disappearance. That being said, I don't think Fred or Billy know what happened.
      The purpose of my above post, which I failed to convey, was to say that ANY of those theories could be correct. We don't know.

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